Quantifying the Relationship Between Physical Activity Energy Expenditure and Incident Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study of Device-Measured Activity in 90,096 Adults.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between accelerometer-derived physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a cohort of middle-aged adults and within subgroups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were from 90,096 UK Biobank participants without prevalent diabetes (mean 62 years of age; 57% women) who wore a wrist accelerometer for 7 days. PAEE was derived from wrist acceleration using a population-specific method validated against doubly labeled water. Logistic regressions were used to assess associations between PAEE, its underlying intensity, and incident T2D, ascertained using hospital episode and mortality data up to November 2020. Models were progressively adjusted for demographic, lifestyle factors, and BMI. RESULTS: The association between PAEE and T2D was approximately linear (n = 2,018 events). We observed 19% (95% CI 17-21) lower odds of T2D per 5 kJ · kg-1 · day-1 in PAEE without adjustment for BMI and 11% (9-13) with BMI adjustment. The association was stronger in men than women and weaker in those with obesity and higher genetic susceptibility to obesity. There was no evidence of effect modification by genetic susceptibility to T2D or insulin resistance. For a given level of PAEE, odds of T2D were lower among those engaging in more moderate-to-vigorous activity. CONCLUSIONS: There was a strong linear relationship between PAEE and incident T2D. A difference in PAEE equivalent to an additional daily 20-min brisk walk was associated with 19% lower odds of T2D. The association was broadly similar across population subgroups, supporting physical activity for diabetes prevention in the whole population.

Association between Indicators of Inequality and Weight Change following a Behavioural Weight Loss Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: Weight loss through behavioural weight management interventions can have important health benefits for people with obesity. However, to maximise the health benefits, weight loss must be maintained. Evidence suggests that behavioural weight loss interventions do not exacerbate inequalities in the short term. However, no study has yet considered whether inequalities exist in long-term weight change following intervention. We aimed to investigate if there are inequalities in weight change following weight loss intervention. METHODS: We conducted a cohort analysis of data from the Weight Loss Referrals for Adults in Primary Care (WRAP) trial (N = 1,267). WRAP randomised participants to receive a brief intervention information booklet or vouchers for 12-weeks or 52-weeks of WW (formerly WeightWatchers) and followed them for 5 years. Multiple linear regression estimated the association between exposures (indicators of inequality) and outcomes (change in weight between 1- and 5-years). Each model was adjusted for the intervention group, baseline weight, weight change between baseline and 1-year, research centre, and source of the 5-year weight data. RESULTS: Of the 1,267 participants in WRAP, 708 had weight change data available. Mean weight change between 1- and 5-years was +3.30 kg (SD 9.10 kg). A 1 year difference in age at baseline was associated with weight change of 0.11 kg ((95% CI 0.06, 0.16), p < 0.001). We did not find evidence of associations between ethnicity, gender, education, indices of multiple deprivation, household income, or other family members participating in a weight loss programme and weight change. CONCLUSION: Except for age, we did not find evidence of inequalities in weight change following a behavioural intervention. Findings further support the use of behavioural weight management interventions as part of a systems-wide approach to improving population health.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of referral to a commercial open group behavioural weight management programme in adults with overweight and obesity: 5-year follow-up of the WRAP randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that commercially available behavioural weight management programmes can lead to short-term weight loss and reductions in glycaemia. Here, we aimed to provide the 5-year impact and cost-effectiveness of these interventions compared with a brief intervention. METHODS: WRAP was a non-blinded, parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT). We recruited from primary care practices in England and randomly assigned participants to one of three interventions (brief intervention, 12-week open-group behavioural programme [WW, formerly Weight Watchers], or a 52-week open-group WW behavioural programme) in an uneven (2:5:5) allocation. Participants were followed up 5 years after randomisation using data from measurement visits at primary care practices or a research centre, review of primary care electronic medical notes, and self-report questionnaires. The primary outcome was change in weight at 5 years follow-up, assessed using analysis of covariance. We also estimated cost-effectiveness of the intervention. This study is registered at Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN64986150. FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2012, and Feb 10, 2014, we recruited 1269 eligible participants (two participants were randomly assigned but not eligible and therefore excluded) and 1040 (82%) consented to be approached about additional follow-up and to have their medical notes reviewed at 5 years. The primary outcome (weight) was ascertained for 871 (69%) of 1267 eligible participants. Mean duration of follow-up was 5·1 (SD 0·3) years. Mean weight change from baseline to 5 years was -0·46 (SD 8·31) kg in the brief intervention group, -1·95 (9·55) kg in the 12-week programme group, and -2·67 (9·81) kg in the 52-week programme. The adjusted difference in weight change was -1·76 (95% CI -3·68 to 0·17) kg between the 52-week programme and the brief intervention; -0·80 (-2·13 to 0·54) kg between the 52-week and the 12-week programme; and -0·96 (-2·90 to 0·97) kg between the 12-week programme and the brief intervention. During the trial, the 12-week programme incurred the lowest cost and produced the highest quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Simulations beyond 5 years suggested that the 52-week programme would deliver the highest QALYs at the lowest cost and would be the most cost-effective. No participants reported adverse events related to the intervention. INTERPRETATION: Although the difference in weight change between groups was not statistically significant, some weight loss was maintained at 5 years after an open-group behavioural weight management programme. Health economic modelling suggests that this could have important implications to reduce the incidence of weight-related disease and these interventions might be cost-saving. FUNDING: The UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Programme Grants for Applied Research and the Medical Research Council.

The impact of participant mental health on attendance and engagement in a trial of behavioural weight management programmes: secondary analysis of the WRAP randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Low attendance and engagement in behavioural weight management trials are common. Mental health may play an important role, however previous research exploring this association is limited with inconsistent findings. We aimed to investigate whether mental health was associated with attendance and engagement in a trial of behavioural weight management programmes. METHODS: This is a secondary data analysis of the Weight loss referrals for adults in primary care (WRAP) trial, which randomised 1267 adults with overweight or obesity to brief intervention, WW (formerly Weight Watchers) for 12-weeks, or WW for 52-weeks. We used regression analyses to assess the association of baseline mental health (depression and anxiety (by Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), quality of life (by EQ5D), satisfaction with life (by Satisfaction with Life Questionnaire)) with programme attendance and engagement in WW groups, and trial attendance in all randomised groups. RESULTS: Every one unit of baseline depression score was associated with a 1% relative reduction in rate of WW session attendance in the first 12 weeks (Incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.99; 95% CI 0.98, 0.999). Higher baseline anxiety was associated with 4% lower odds to report high engagement with WW digital tools (Odds ratio [OR] 0.96; 95% CI 0.94, 0.99). Every one unit of global quality of life was associated with 69% lower odds of reporting high engagement with the WW mobile app (OR 0.31; 95% CI 0.15, 0.64). Greater symptoms of depression and anxiety and lower satisfaction with life at baseline were consistently associated with lower odds of attending study visits at 3-, 12-, 24-, and 60-months. CONCLUSIONS: Participants were less likely to attend programme sessions, engage with resources, and attend study assessments when reporting poorer baseline mental health. Differences in attendance and engagement were small, however changes may still have a meaningful effect on programme effectiveness and trial completion. Future research should investigate strategies to maximise attendance and engagement in those reporting poorer mental health. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The original trial ( ISRCTN82857232 ) and five year follow up ( ISRCTN64986150 ) were prospectively registered with Current Controlled Trials on 15/10/2012 and 01/02/2018.

Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: controlled interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in household purchases of drinks and confectionery one year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL). DESIGN: Controlled interrupted time series analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Members of a panel of households reporting their purchasing on a weekly basis to a market research company (average weekly number of participants n=22 183), March 2014 to March 2019. INTERVENTION: A two tiered tax levied on manufacturers of soft drinks, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at £0.24/L and drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at £0.18/L. Drinks with <5 g sugar/100 mL (no levy) are not taxed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol, and confectionery purchased per household per week one year after implementation of the SDIL compared with trends before the announcement of the SDIL. RESULTS: In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual estimated from pre-announcement trends, purchased volume of drinks in the high levy tier decreased by 155 mL (95% confidence interval 240.5 to 69.5 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 44.3% (95% confidence interval 59.9% to 28.7%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 18.0 g (95% confidence interval 32.3 to 3.6 g), or 45.9% (68.8% to 22.9%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 177.3 mL (225.3 to 129.3 mL) per household per week, or 85.9% (95.1% to 76.7%), with a 12.5 g (15.4 to 9.5 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 86.2% (94.2% to 78.1%). Despite no overall change in volume of no levy drinks purchased, there was an increase in sugar purchased of 15.3 g (12.6 to 17.9 g) per household per week, equivalent to 166.4% (94.2% to 238.5%). When all soft drinks were combined, the volume of drinks purchased did not change, but sugar decreased by 29.5 g (55.8 to 3.1 g), or 9.8% (17.9% to 1.8%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not change. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, one year after implementation, the volume of soft drinks purchased did not change. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 30 g, or 10%, lower per household per week-equivalent to one 250 mL serving of a low tier drink per person per week. The SDIL might benefit public health without harming industry. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN18042742.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the GoActive intervention to increase physical activity among UK adolescents: A cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Less than 20% of adolescents globally meet recommended levels of physical activity, and not meeting these recommended levels is associated with social disadvantage and rising disease risk. The determinants of physical activity in adolescents are multilevel and poorly understood, but the school's social environment likely plays an important role. We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of a school-based programme (GoActive) to increase moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) among adolescents. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Non-fee-paying, co-educational schools including Year 9 students in the UK counties of Cambridgeshire and Essex were eligible for inclusion. Within participating schools (n = 16), all Year 9 students were eligible and invited to participate. Participants were 2,862 13- to 14-year-olds (84% of eligible students). After baseline assessment, schools were computer-randomised, stratified by school-level pupil premium funding (below/above county-specific median) and county (control: 8 schools, 1,319 participants, mean [SD] participants per school n = 165 [62]; intervention: 8 schools, 1,543 participants, n = 193 [43]). Measurement staff were blinded to allocation. The iteratively developed, feasibility-tested 12-week intervention, aligned with self-determination theory, trained older adolescent mentors and in-class peer-leaders to encourage classes to conduct 2 new weekly activities. Students and classes gained points and rewards for engaging in any activity in or out of school. The primary outcome was average daily minutes of accelerometer-assessed MVPA at 10-month follow-up; a mixed-methods process evaluation evaluated implementation. Of 2,862 recruited participants (52.1% male), 2,167 (76%) attended 10-month follow-up measurements; we analysed the primary outcome for 1,874 participants (65.5%). At 10 months, there was a mean (SD) decrease in MVPA of 8.3 (19.3) minutes in the control group and 10.4 (22.7) minutes in the intervention group (baseline-adjusted difference [95% confidence interval] -1.91 minutes [-5.53 to 1.70], p = 0.316). The programme cost £13 per student compared with control; it was not cost-effective. Overall, 62.9% of students and 87.3% of mentors reported that GoActive was fun. Teachers and mentors commented that their roles in programme delivery were unclear. Implementation fidelity was low. The main methodological limitation of this study was the relatively affluent and ethnically homogeneous sample. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that a rigorously developed school-based intervention was no more effective than standard school practice at preventing declines in adolescent physical activity. Interdisciplinary research is required to understand educational-setting-specific implementation challenges. School leaders and authorities should be realistic about expectations of the effect of school-based physical activity promotion strategies implemented at scale. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN31583496.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of a diabetes education and behavioural weight management programme versus a diabetes education programme in adults with a recent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes: study protocol for the Glucose Lowering through Weight management (GLoW) randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: People with type 2 diabetes (T2D) can improve glycaemic control or even achieve remission through weight loss and reduce their use of medication and risk of cardiovascular disease. The Glucose Lowering through Weight management (GLoW) trial will evaluate whether a tailored diabetes education and behavioural weight management programme (DEW) is more effective and cost-effective than a diabetes education (DE) programme in helping people with overweight or obesity and a recent diagnosis of T2D to lower their blood glucose, lose weight and improve other markers of cardiovascular risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study is a pragmatic, randomised, single-blind, parallel group, two-arm, superiority trial. We will recruit 576 adults with body mass index>25 kg/m2 and diagnosis of T2D in the past 3 years and randomise them to a tailored DEW or a DE programme. Participants will attend measurement appointments at a local general practitioner practice or research centre at baseline, 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome is 12-month change in glycated haemoglobin. The effect of the intervention on the primary outcome will be estimated and tested using a linear regression model (analysis of covariance) including randomisation group and adjusted for baseline value of the outcome and the randomisation stratifiers. Participants will be included in the group to which they were randomised, under the intention-to-treat principle. Secondary outcomes include 6-month and 12-month changes in body weight, body fat percentage, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and lipid profile; probability of achieving good glycaemic control; probability of achieving remission from diabetes; probability of losing 5% and 10% body weight and modelled cardiovascular risk (UKPDS). An intention-to-treat within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis will be conducted from NHS and societal perspectives using participant-level data. Qualitative interviews will be conducted with participants to understand why and how the programme achieved its results and how participants manage their weight after the programme ends. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was received from East of Scotland Research Ethics Service on 15 May 2018 (18/ES/0048). This protocol (V.3) was approved on 19 June 2019. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and communicated to other stakeholders as appropriate. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN18399564.

Long-term effects of intensive multifactorial therapy in individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes in primary care: 10-year follow-up of the ADDITION-Europe cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The multicentre, international ADDITION-Europe study investigated the effect of promoting intensive treatment of multiple risk factors among people with screen-detected type 2 diabetes over 5 years. Here we report the results of a post-hoc 10-year follow-up analysis of ADDITION-Europe to establish whether differences in treatment and cardiovascular risk factors have been maintained and to assess effects on cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: As previously described, general practices from four centres (Denmark, Cambridge [UK], Leicester [UK], and the Netherlands) were randomly assigned by computer-generated list to provide screening followed by routine care of diabetes, or screening followed by intensive multifactorial treatment. Population-based stepwise screening programmes among people aged 40-69 years (50-69 years in the Netherlands), between April, 2001, and December, 2006, identified patients with type 2 diabetes. Allocation was concealed from patients. Following the 5-year follow-up, no attempts were made to maintain differences in treatment between study groups. In this report, we did a post-hoc analysis of cardiovascular and renal outcomes over 10 years following randomisation, including a 5 years post-intervention follow-up. As in the original trial, the primary endpoint was a composite of first cardiovascular event, including cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular morbidity (non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke), revascularisation, and non-traumatic amputation, up to Dec 31, 2014. Analyses were based on the intention-to-treat principle. ADDITION-Europe is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00237549. FINDINGS: 343 general practices were randomly assigned to routine diabetes care (n=176) or intensive multifactorial treatment (n=167). 317 of these general practices (157 in the routine care group, 161 in the intensive treatment group) included eligible patients between April, 2001, and December, 2006. Of the 3233 individuals with screen-detected diabetes, 3057 agreed to participate (1379 in the routine care group, 1678 in the intensive treatment group), but at the 10-year follow-up 14 were lost to follow-up and 12 withdrew, leaving 3031 to enter 10-year follow-up analysis. Mean duration of follow-up was 9·61 years (SD 2·99). Sustained reductions over 10 years following diagnosis were apparent for bodyweight, HbA1c, blood pressure, and cholesterol in both study groups, but between-group differences identified at 1 and 5 years were attenuated at the 10-year follow-up. By 10 years, 443 participants had a first cardiovascular event and 465 died. There was no significant difference between groups in the incidence of the primary composite outcome (16·1 per 1000 person-years in the routine care group vs 14·3 per 1000 person-years in the intensive treatment group; hazard ratio [HR] 0·87, 95% CI 0·73-1·04; p=0·14) or all-cause mortality (15·6 vs 14·3 per 1000 person-years; HR 0·90, 0·76-1·07). INTERPRETATION: Sustained reductions in glycaemia and related cardiovascular risk factors over 10 years among people with screen-detected diabetes managed in primary care are achievable. The differences in prescribed treatment and cardiovascular risk factors in the 5 years following diagnosis were not maintained at 10 years, and the difference in cardiovascular events and mortality remained non-significant. FUNDING: National Health Service Denmark, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Danish Research Foundation for General Practice, Novo Nordisk, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Danish Centre for Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment, Danish National Board of Health, Danish Medical Research Council, Aarhus University Research Foundation, Astra, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Servier, HemoCue, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK National Health Service, Merck, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, UK Department of Health, and Nuts-OHRA.

Assessing the impact of the Barbados sugar-sweetened beverage tax on beverage sales: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has advocated for sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as part of a broader non-communicable disease prevention strategy, and these taxes have been recently introduced in a wide range of settings. However, much is still unknown about how SSB taxes operate in various contexts and as a result of different tax designs. In 2015, the Government of Barbados implemented a 10% ad valorem (value-based) tax on SSBs. It has been hypothesized that this tax structure may inadvertently encourage consumers to switch to cheaper sugary drinks. We aimed to assess whether and to what extent there has been a change in sales of SSBs following implementation of the SSB tax. METHODS: We used electronic point of sale data from a major grocery store chain and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) design to assess grocery store SSB and non-SSB sales from January 2013 to October 2016. We controlled for the underlying time trend, seasonality, inflation, tourism and holidays. We conducted sensitivity analyses using a cross-country control (Trinidad and Tobago) and a within-country control (vinegar). We included a post-hoc stratification by price tertile to assess the extent to which consumers may switch to cheaper sugary drinks. RESULTS: We found that average weekly sales of SSBs decreased by 4.3% (95%CI 3.6 to 4.9%) compared to expected sales without a tax, primarily driven by a decrease in carbonated SSBs sales of 3.6% (95%CI 2.9 to 4.4%). Sales of non-SSBs increased by 5.2% (95%CI 4.5 to 5.9%), with bottled water sales increasing by an average of 7.5% (95%CI 6.5 to 8.3%). The sensitivity analyses were consistent with the uncontrolled results. After stratifying by price, we found evidence of substitution to cheaper SSBs. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that the Barbados SSB tax was associated with decreased sales of SSBs in a major grocery store chain after controlling for underlying trends. This finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. We found evidence to suggest that consumers may have changed their behaviour in response to the tax by purchasing cheaper sugary drinks, in addition to substituting to untaxed products. This has important implications for the design of future SSB taxes.

Socio-economic and age variations in response to supermarket-led checkout food policies: a repeated measures analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dietary inequalities between population groups are common with older and more affluent individuals tending to have healthier diets. Differential responses to health interventions may exacerbate inequalities. Changing what foods are displayed at supermarket checkouts is one intervention that has the potential to change diets. The aim of this study was to assess whether differences in purchases of common checkout foods from supermarkets with different checkout food policies varied according to age group and social grade. METHODS: We analysed annual household purchase data for 2013-17 from nine leading UK supermarkets, split according to age of the main household shopper and household social grade. Checkout food policies were categorised as clear and consistent, vague or inconsistent, and none. Policies were heterogeneous but all included removal of confectionery and/or chocolate from checkouts. Mixed effects linear regression models were used to assess differences in purchases of common checkout foods (sugary confectionery, chocolate and potato crisps) by checkout food policy and whether these varied by age group or occupational social grade. RESULTS: Relative to supermarkets with no checkout food policy, 14% (95% CI: 4-22%) fewer purchases of common checkout foods per household per percentage market share were made in supermarkets with a clear and consistent policy. Adjusted mean numbers of purchases were higher in older age groups than the youngest, but there were no differences between the highest and other social grades. There were significant interactions between checkout food policy and both age group and social grade. In supermarkets with clear and consistent policies, 23% (6-36%), 20% (2-34%), and 23% (7-37%) fewer purchases were made in age groups 45-54, 55-64 and 65+ years respectively, compared to all groups combined. In supermarkets with clear and consistent policies, there were 21% (4-35%), 26% (9-39%) and 21% (3-35%) fewer purchases made by households in the highest two and lowest social grades respectively, compared to all groups combined. CONCLUSIONS: Households with older main shoppers and those in the most and least affluent social grades may be most responsive to supermarket checkout food policies. As older and more affluent groups tend to have healthier diets overall, it is unlikely that supermarket checkout food policies contribute to greater dietary equity.

Supermarket policies on less-healthy food at checkouts: Natural experimental evaluation using interrupted time series analyses of purchases.

BACKGROUND: In response to public concerns and campaigns, some United Kingdom supermarkets have implemented policies to reduce less-healthy food at checkouts. We explored the effects of these policies on purchases of less-healthy foods commonly displayed at checkouts. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a natural experimental design and two data sources providing complementary and unique information. We analysed data on purchases of small packages of common, less-healthy, checkout foods (sugary confectionary, chocolate, and potato crisps) from 2013 to 2017 from nine UK supermarkets (Aldi, Asda, Co-op, Lidl, M&S, Morrisons, Sainsbury's, Tesco, and Waitrose). Six supermarkets implemented a checkout food policy between 2013 and 2017 and were considered intervention stores; the remainder were comparators. Firstly, we studied the longitudinal association between implementation of checkout policies and purchases taken home. We used data from a large (n ≈ 30,000) household purchase panel of food brought home to conduct controlled interrupted time series analyses of purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from 12 months before to 12 months after implementation. We conducted separate analyses for each intervention supermarket, using others as comparators. We synthesised results across supermarkets using random effects meta-analyses. Implementation of a checkout food policy was associated with an immediate reduction in four-weekly purchases of common checkout foods of 157,000 (72,700-242,800) packages per percentage market share-equivalent to a 17.3% reduction. This decrease was sustained at 1 year with 185,100 (121,700-248,500) fewer packages purchased per 4 weeks per percentage market share-equivalent to a 15.5% reduction. The immediate, but not sustained, effect was robust to sensitivity analysis. Secondly, we studied the cross-sectional association between checkout food policies and purchases eaten without being taken home. We used data from a smaller (n ≈ 7,500) individual purchase panel of food bought and eaten 'on the go'. We conducted cross-sectional analyses comparing purchases of common checkout foods in 2016-2017 from supermarkets with and without checkout food policies. There were 76.4% (95% confidence interval 48.6%-89.1%) fewer annual purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from supermarkets with versus without checkout food policies. The main limitations of the study are that we do not know where in the store purchases were selected and cannot determine the effect of changes in purchases on consumption. Other interventions may also have been responsible for the results seen. CONCLUSIONS: There is a potential impact of checkout food polices on purchases. Voluntary supermarket-led activities may have public health benefits.

Randomised controlled trial of a theory-based behavioural intervention to reduce formula milk intake.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of a theory-based behavioural intervention to prevent rapid weight gain in formula milk-fed infants. DESIGN: In this single (assessor) blind, randomised controlled trial, 669 healthy full-term infants receiving formula milk within 14 weeks of birth were individually randomised to intervention (n=340) or attention-matched control (n=329) groups. The intervention aimed to reduce formula milk intakes, and promote responsive feeding and growth monitoring to prevent rapid weight gain (≥+0.67 SD scores (SDS)). It was delivered to mothers by trained facilitators up to infant age 6 months through three face-to-face contacts, two telephone contacts and written materials. RESULTS: Retention was 93% (622) at 6 months, 88% (586) at 12 months and 94% attended ≥4/5 sessions. The intervention strengthened maternal attitudes to following infant feeding recommendations, reduced reported milk intakes at ages 3 (-14%; intervention vs control infants), 4 (-12%), 5 (-9%) and 6 (-7%) months, slowed initial infant weight gain from baseline to 6 months (mean change 0.32 vs 0.42 SDS, baseline-adjusted difference (intervention vs control) -0.08 (95% CI -0.17 to -0.004) SDS), but had no effect on the primary outcome of weight gain to 12 months (baseline-adjusted difference -0.04 (-0.17, 0.10) SDS). By 12 months, 40.3% of infants in the intervention group and 45.9% in the control group showed rapid weight gain (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.17). CONCLUSIONS: Despite reducing milk intakes and initial weight gain, the intervention did not alter the high prevalence of rapid weight gain to age 12 months suggesting the need for sustained intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN20814693.

A cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the GoActive intervention to increase physical activity among adolescents aged 13-14 years.

INTRODUCTION: Adolescent physical activity promotion is rarely effective, despite adolescence being critical for preventing physical activity decline. Low adolescent physical activity is likely to last into adulthood, increasing health risks. The Get Others Active (GoActive) intervention is evidence-based and was developed iteratively with adolescents and teachers. This intervention aims to increase physical activity through increased peer support, self-efficacy, group cohesion, self-esteem and friendship quality, and is implemented using a tiered-leadership system. We previously established feasibility in one school and conducted a pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) in three schools. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a school-based cluster RCT (CRCT) in 16 secondary schools targeting all year 9 students (n=2400). In eight schools, GoActive will run for two terms: weekly facilitation support from a council-funded intervention facilitator will be offered in term 1, with more distant support in term 2. Tutor groups choose two weekly activities, encouraged by older adolescent mentors and weekly peer leaders. Students gain points for trying new activities; points are entered into a between-class competition. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline, interim (week 6), postintervention (week 14-16) and 10-month follow-up (main outcome). The primary outcome will be change from baseline in daily accelerometer-assessed moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Secondary outcomes include accelerometer-assessed activity intensities on weekdays/weekends; self-reported physical activity and psychosocial outcomes; cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses; mixed-methods process evaluation integrating information from focus groups and participation logs/questionnaires. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for the conduct of the study was gained from the University of Cambridge Psychology Research Ethics Committee. Given the lack of rigorously evaluated interventions, and the inclusion of objective measurement of physical activity, long-term follow-up and testing of causal pathways, the results of a CRCT of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of GoActive are expected to add substantially to the limited evidence on adolescent physical activity promotion. Workshops will be held with key stakeholders including students, parents, teachers, school governors and government representatives to discuss plans for wider dissemination of the intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN31583496.

A randomised trial of the effect and cost-effectiveness of early intensive multifactorial therapy on 5-year cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes: the Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen-Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION-Europe) study.

BACKGROUND: Intensive treatment (IT) of cardiovascular risk factors can halve mortality among people with established type 2 diabetes but the effects of treatment earlier in the disease trajectory are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the cost-effectiveness of intensive multifactorial treatment of screen-detected diabetes. DESIGN: Pragmatic, multicentre, cluster-randomised, parallel-group trial. SETTING: Three hundred and forty-three general practices in Denmark, the Netherlands, and Cambridge and Leicester, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 40-69 years with screen-detected diabetes. INTERVENTIONS: Screening plus routine care (RC) according to national guidelines or IT comprising screening and promotion of target-driven intensive management (medication and promotion of healthy lifestyles) of hyperglycaemia, blood pressure and cholesterol. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary end point was a composite of first cardiovascular event (cardiovascular mortality/morbidity, revascularisation and non-traumatic amputation) during a mean [standard deviation (SD)] follow-up of 5.3 (1.6) years. Secondary end points were (1) all-cause mortality; (2) microvascular outcomes (kidney function, retinopathy and peripheral neuropathy); and (3) patient-reported outcomes (health status, well-being, quality of life, treatment satisfaction). Economic analyses estimated mean costs (UK 2009/10 prices) and quality-adjusted life-years from an NHS perspective. We extrapolated data to 30 years using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study outcomes model [version 1.3; (©) Isis Innovation Ltd 2010; see www.dtu.ox.ac.uk/outcomesmodel (accessed 27 January 2016)]. RESULTS: We included 3055 (RC, n = 1377; IT, n = 1678) of the 3057 recruited patients [mean (SD) age 60.3 (6.9) years] in intention-to-treat analyses. Prescription of glucose-lowering, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medication increased in both groups, more so in the IT group than in the RC group. There were clinically important improvements in cardiovascular risk factors in both study groups. Modest but statistically significant differences between groups in reduction in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels, blood pressure and cholesterol favoured the IT group. The incidence of first cardiovascular event [IT 7.2%, 13.5 per 1000 person-years; RC 8.5%, 15.9 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65 to 1.05] and all-cause mortality (IT 6.2%, 11.6 per 1000 person-years; RC 6.7%, 12.5 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.21) did not differ between groups. At 5 years, albuminuria was present in 22.7% and 24.4% of participants in the IT and RC groups, respectively [odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.07), retinopathy in 10.2% and 12.1%, respectively (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.10), and neuropathy in 4.9% and 5.9% (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.34), respectively. The estimated glomerular filtration rate increased between baseline and follow-up in both groups (IT 4.31 ml/minute; RC 6.44 ml/minute). Health status, well-being, diabetes-specific quality of life and treatment satisfaction did not differ between the groups. The intervention cost £981 per patient and was not cost-effective at costs ≥ £631 per patient. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with RC, IT was associated with modest increases in prescribed treatment, reduced levels of risk factors and non-significant reductions in cardiovascular events, microvascular complications and death over 5 years. IT did not adversely affect patient-reported outcomes. IT was not cost-effective but might be if delivered at a reduced cost. The lower than expected event rate, heterogeneity of intervention delivery between centres and improvements in general practice diabetes care limited the achievable differences in treatment between groups. Further follow-up to assess the legacy effects of early IT is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00237549. FUNDING DETAILS: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 64. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Repeat Cardiovascular Risk Assessment after Four Years: Is There Improvement in Risk Prediction?

BACKGROUND: Framingham risk equations are widely used to predict cardiovascular disease based on health information from a single time point. Little is known regarding use of information from repeat risk assessments and temporal change in estimated cardiovascular risk for prediction of future cardiovascular events. This study was aimed to compare the discrimination and risk reclassification of approaches using estimated cardiovascular risk at single and repeat risk assessments. METHODS: Using data on 12,197 individuals enrolled in EPIC-Norfolk cohort, with 12 years of follow-up, we examined rates of cardiovascular events by levels of estimated absolute risk (Framingham risk score) at the first and second health examination four years later. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) and risk reclassification, comparing approaches using information from single and repeat risk assessments (i.e., estimated risk at different time points). RESULTS: The mean Framingham risk score increased from 15.5% to 17.5% over a mean of 3.7 years from the first to second health examination. Individuals with high estimated risk (≥20%) at both health examinations had considerably higher rates of cardiovascular events than those who remained in the lowest risk category (<10%) in both health examinations (34.0 [95%CI 31.7-36.6] and 2.7 [2.2-3.3] per 1,000 person-years respectively). Using information from the most up-to-date risk assessment resulted in a small non-significant change in risk classification over the previous risk assessment (net reclassification improvement of -4.8%, p>0.05). Using information from both risk assessments slightly improved discrimination compared to information from a single risk assessment (aROC 0.76 and 0.75 respectively, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Using information from repeat risk assessments over a period of four years modestly improved prediction, compared to using data from a single risk assessment. However, this approach did not improve risk classification.

Seasonal Variation in Children's Physical Activity and Sedentary Time.

PURPOSE: Understanding seasonal variation in physical activity is important for informing public health surveillance and intervention design. The aim of the current study was to describe seasonal variation in children's objectively measured physical activity and sedentary time. METHODS: Data are from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Participants were invited to wear an accelerometer for 7 d on five occasions between November 2008 and January 2010. Outcome variables were sedentary time (<100 counts per minute, min·d(-1)) and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (>2241 counts per minute, min·d(-1)). The season was characterized using a categorical variable (spring, summer, autumn, or winter) and a continuous function of day of the year. Cross-classified linear regression models were used to estimate the association of each of these constructs with the outcome variables. Modification of the seasonal variation by sex, weight status, urban/rural location, parental income, and day of the week (weekday/weekend) was examined using interaction terms in regression models. RESULTS: At least one wave of valid accelerometer data was obtained from 704 participants (47% male; baseline age, 7.6 (0.3) yr). MVPA was lower in autumn and winter relative to spring, with the magnitude of this difference varying by weekday/weekend, sex, weight status, urban/rural location, and family income (P for interaction <0.05 in all cases). Total sedentary time was greater in autumn and winter compared with spring; the seasonal effect was stronger during the weekend than during the weekday (P for interaction <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Lower levels of MVPA and elevated sedentary time support the implementation of intervention programs during autumn and winter. Evidence of greater seasonal variation in weekend behavior and among certain sociodemographic subgroups highlights targets for tailored intervention programs.

Protocol for Get Moving: a randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of three minimal contact interventions to promote fitness and physical activity in working adults.

BACKGROUND: Web-based interventions for physical activity offer several advantages over face-to-face, print-and telephone-based interventions and are scalable and potentially cost-effective. Recent reviews of web-based interventions in adults show that they have positive but small effects on physical activity but identify a number of limitations including a reliance on self-report measures of outcome. This trial used an objective measure of physical activity to assess the effectiveness of three minimal contact interventions: 1) A multi-component web-based intervention incorporating objective monitoring and graphical feedback of physical activity; 2) A version of the first intervention that consisted only of objective monitoring plus web-based graphical feedback; and 3) Self-monitoring of physical activity using a paper diary. METHODS/DESIGN: Get Moving is an individually randomised controlled trial with allocation of 488 participants to one of three interventions or to a no-intervention control group. Participants are physically inactive working adults aged 18-65 years. They attended a baseline assessment session at which anthropometric, biological and questionnaire measures were taken and they completed a treadmill exercise test. They then wore a combined movement and heart rate monitor for six days and nights before being randomised to one of the four trial arms. The baseline measures were repeated at the follow-up assessment which took place approximately 12 weeks post-randomisation, conducted by staff blind to group allocation. Participants wore the movement and heart rate monitor for six days and nights before this. The co-primary outcomes are: physical activity energy expenditure measured using individually calibrated combined heart-rate and movement data; and cardiorespiratory fitness measured using a sub-maximal treadmill exercise test. DISCUSSION: Strengths of the trial include the use of an objective measure of physical activity, a measure of cardiorespiratory fitness, relatively large sample size and the use of robust methods of randomisation, allocation concealment and blinding to outcome assessment. Get Moving will contribute to the evidence base on minimal contact interventions for increasing physical activity. The interventions could be implemented in other settings such as primary care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN31844443. Registered 18 June 2010.

Effectiveness and equity impacts of town-wide cycling initiatives in England: a longitudinal, controlled natural experimental study.

Cycling confers health and environmental benefits, but few robust studies have evaluated large-scale programmes to promote cycling. In England, recent years have seen substantial, town-wide cycling initiatives in six Cycling Demonstration Towns (funded 2005-2011) and 12 Cycling Cities and Towns (funded 2008-2011). The initiatives involved mixtures of capital investment (e.g. cycle lanes) and revenue investment (e.g. cycle training), tailored to each town. This controlled before-after natural experimental study used English census data to examine impacts on the prevalence of travelling to work by bicycle and other modes, comparing changes in the intervention towns with changes in three comparison groups (matched towns, unfunded towns and a national comparison group). We also compared effects between more and less deprived areas, and used random-effects meta-analysis to compare intervention effects between towns. Among 1.3 million commuters in 18 intervention towns, we found that the prevalence of cycling to work rose from 5.8% in 2001 to 6.8% in 2011. This represented a significant increase relative to all three comparison groups (e.g. +0.69 (95% CI 0.60,0.77) percentage points for intervention vs. matched towns). Walking to work also increased significantly compared with comparison towns, while driving to work decreased and public transport use was unchanged. These effects were observed across all fifths of area deprivation, with larger relative changes in deprived areas. There was substantial variation in effect sizes between towns, however, and the average town-level effect on cycling was non-significant (+0.29 (-0.26,0.84) percentage points for intervention vs. matched towns). We conclude that to date, cycling to work has increased (and driving to work decreased) in the intervention towns, in a relatively equitable manner. The variation in effects between towns indicates uncertainty regarding the likely impact of comparable investment in future towns. Nevertheless these results support the case for implementing and evaluating further town-wide cycling initiatives.

Factors associated with the presence of diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis of diabetes in children and young adults: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors associated with diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in children and young adults. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, and Cinahl and article reference lists. STUDY SELECTION: Cohort studies including unselected groups of children and young adults presenting with new onset type 1 diabetes that distinguished between those who presented in diabetic ketoacidosis and those who did not and included a measurement of either pH or bicarbonate in the definition of diabetic ketoacidosis. There were no restrictions on language of publication. RESULTS: 46 studies involving more than 24,000 children in 31 countries were included. Together they compared 23 different factors. Factors associated with increased risk were younger age (for <2 years old v older, odds ratio 3.41 (95% confidence interval 2.54 to 4.59), for <5 years v older, odds ratio 1.59 (1.38 to 1.84)), diagnostic error (odds ratio 3.35 (2.35 to 4.79)), ethnic minority, lack of health insurance in the US (odds ratio 3.20 (2.03 to 5.04)), lower body mass index, preceding infection (odds ratio 3.14 (0.94 to 10.47)), and delayed treatment (odds ratio 1.74 (1.10 to 2.77)). Protective factors were having a first degree relative with type 1 diabetes at the time of diagnosis (odds ratio 0.33 (0.08 to 1.26)), higher parental education (odds ratios 0.4 (0.20 to 0.79) and 0.64 (0.43 to 0.94) in two studies), and higher background incidence of type 1 diabetes (correlation coefficient -0.715). The mean duration of symptoms was similar between children presenting with or without diabetic ketoacidosis (16.5 days (standard error 6.2) and 17.1 days (6.0) respectively), and up to 38.8% (285/735) of children who presented with diabetic ketoacidosis had been seen at least once by a doctor before diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple factors affect the risk of developing diabetic ketoacidosis at the onset of type 1 diabetes in children and young adults, and there is potential time, scope, and opportunity to intervene between symptom onset and development of diabetic ketoacidosis for both parents and clinicians.

Effect of early intensive multifactorial therapy on 5-year cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with type 2 diabetes detected by screening (ADDITION-Europe): a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Intensive treatment of multiple cardiovascular risk factors can halve mortality among people with established type 2 diabetes. We investigated the effect of early multifactorial treatment after diagnosis by screening. METHODS: In a pragmatic, cluster-randomised, parallel-group trial done in Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK, 343 general practices were randomly assigned screening of registered patients aged 40-69 years without known diabetes followed by routine care of diabetes or screening followed by intensive treatment of multiple risk factors. The primary endpoint was first cardiovascular event, including cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, revascularisation, and non-traumatic amputation within 5 years. Patients and staff assessing outcomes were unaware of the practice's study group assignment. Analysis was done by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00237549. FINDINGS: Primary endpoint data were available for 3055 (99·9%) of 3057 screen-detected patients. The mean age was 60·3 (SD 6·9) years and the mean duration of follow-up was 5·3 (SD 1·6) years. Improvements in cardiovascular risk factors (HbA(1c) and cholesterol concentrations and blood pressure) were slightly but significantly better in the intensive treatment group. The incidence of first cardiovascular event was 7·2% (13·5 per 1000 person-years) in the intensive treatment group and 8·5% (15·9 per 1000 person-years) in the routine care group (hazard ratio 0·83, 95% CI 0·65-1·05), and of all-cause mortality 6·2% (11·6 per 1000 person-years) and 6·7% (12·5 per 1000 person-years; 0·91, 0·69-1·21), respectively. INTERPRETATION: An intervention to promote early intensive management of patients with type 2 diabetes was associated with a small, non-significant reduction in the incidence of cardiovascular events and death. FUNDING: National Health Service Denmark, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Danish Research Foundation for General Practice, Danish Centre for Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment, Danish National Board of Health, Danish Medical Research Council, Aarhus University Research Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme, UK National Health Service R&D, UK National Institute for Health Research, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center, Utrecht, Novo Nordisk, Astra, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Servier, HemoCue, Merck.